WNBA Slate Breakdown 8/7
1-2 day yesterday as Jackie dishes out 4 assists on 16 potentials and Burton gets benched. Today we have a three games slate and been awhile since we did a slate breakdown so we'll attack that + props
Atlanta Dream vs Chicago Sky (8pm ET)
Injuries:
Dream - Maya Caldwell (OUT), Rhyne Howard (Doubtful), Brittney Griner (Doubtful), Taylor Thierry (Questionable)
Sky - Angel Reese (OUT), Ariel Atkins (Questionable)
Sky Breakdown
Chicago announced the other day that Reese is without a timetable now and that gives Kamilla Cardoso a big boost and she should continue to dominate the boards. Atkins returned to the lineup last game after missing an extended period of time due to her leg injury and she was able to dish out 5 assists on 6 potential assists while playing 24 minutes and scoring 15 points on 10 field goal attempts. Typically this would be a good spot to attack the pick & roll defense as they are bottom five in defending the ball handler and the roller this season, but without Howard and Griner, they are mixing in a lot of show and recover rather than having Griner or Jones play drop while Howard closes out on shooters. The show and recover has been putting some pressure on ball handlers but opening things up for the roller or front court players. When the roller catches the ball there is very minimal help in the paint, so if they are a dominant low post scorer and/or has a decent midrange jumper, they should be able to feast. Elizabeth Williams and Kamilla Cardoso fit the bill here. Quicker guards who can get down hill have had some success scoring in the paint though, especially if you can create space off the dribble for some midrange jumpers. The Dream’s front court becomes undersized with Naz Hillmon slotting into the starting lineup and can allow for some decent rebounding. Without Rhyne Howard, the Dream still are not giving up many threes but they are allowing teams to hit a high percentage. The show and recover is part of the problem being without Howard and Griner. At this moment it is hard to say whether or not Atkins will play but if she does not, then that most likely puts Rachel Banham on on-ball duties. the show and recover being on ball is not going to be good for her three-point shooting, but she can have some potential to rack up a few assists here.
Dream Breakdown
No Howard, Griner and Caldwell should mean Hillmon and Paopao should get the starts here. With those three off the court, Gray and Canada see the highest usage rates and are taking the most field goal attempts (Hillmon right behind them with field goal attempts). Canada’s assists rate is 10 percentage points higher than the next closest person. Paopao took 13 field goal attempts last time she started (July 30th). Hillmon has seen 30+ minutes in four straight games and when she see’s 30+ minutes, she’s posted 14+ points in all five games and 2+ threes made in 4/5 games. The Sky are allowing the 5th most points in the paint per game in the last 6 games (Reese missing 5/6 games). Attempts from the corners and at the rim have been a real weakness for this Sky team in the last 6 games with Reese missing time. You want to attack the rim most likely with front court players here and if you can get a pick & pop, you can have some real success, putting Hillmon in an intriguing spot here. While talking about attacking the rim, we can’t forget about talking about Brionna Jones who has scored 16 and 23 points against an undersized Mercury team and a poor Mystics interior that doesn’t help and now she gets another favorable paint defense to attack yet again.
LA Sparks vs Connecticut Sun (10pm ET)
Injuries:
Sun - Bria Hartley (Questionable), Aliyah Edwards (Just traded to team today)
Sun Breakdown
The Sun have such an unpredictable rotation that never makes sense and the players they should play don’t, which in my eyes just shows tanking. Hard to bet on this team at all but I’ll do a quick breakdown for them anyways even though I don’t recommend betting on the Sun’s for being so unpredictable. The Sun have one of the worst defenses in the league and yet they continue to win games due to how well their offense is playing. Still, they can be very vulnerable to hand offs and and pullup three shooters. That screams Mabrey potential ceiling game with how high scoring Sparks games can be. The midrange for the ball handler can be a great spot to attack or a problem depending on which front court defender gets put into the screening action as Hamby plays a deep drop and Stevens plays more of a show and recover. With Hamby being the primary defender on Charles, she can really feast with her midrange game here off the pick and pop. A few weeks ago Charles shot 10/18 for 24 points in this matchup. Mabrey came off the bench last time and shot poorly (2/12) but the volume is certainly encouraging and since then she is getting her full minutes again (30+ mins in three straight games). Outside of these two players, everyone else is unpredictable.
Sparks Breakdown
Kelsey Plum had a huge game last time they played with 30 points on 10/15 shooting. The staggered screens and off ball movement helped free her up a ton in this game because with Aneesah Morrow in the starting lineup for the Sun, they tend to do a lot of switching. The Sun like to use a show and recover and it leaves open the pick and pop, but even with this Plum was able to get by with her drives or just hit them with stepbacks creating good space. Speaking of pick & pop we can’t forget about Azura Stevens who does a great job of taking advantage of it and she has certainly been in a groove as of late. Last time they played she went for 17 points on 4/7 shooting from the perimeter. In the matchup before that she hit five threes. Sounds like a good time to ladder her tonight. Against bottom 7 defenses against her position, she’s hit two threes in 12/14 games and 3+ threes in 9/14. Cameron Brink’s minutes are slowly increasing and so are her field goal attempts as she attempted 6 in her latest game. Its only a matter of time before she explodes and this is the perfect matchup to do so. Anyone attacking the paint is in a positive spot here against the Sun as they are allowing the 5th most points there in the last 10 games and have no real anchor to defend the rim.
Indiana Fever vs Phoenix Mercury (10pm ET)
Injuries:
Fever - Caitlin Clark (OUT)
Fever Breakdown
Aliyah Boston dominated the paint and with the Mercury being undersized and over aggressive on defense to make up for being undersized, paint scoring is a great way to attack this team with front court players. Boston went 10/13 for 22 points with 12 rebounds. Front court players have been a problem and I expect Boston to continue creating a problem for this Mercury team. They struggle off ball and can’t defend handoffs. That points to Kelsey Mitchell, but watching last game we just seen the Fever just absolutely feed Boston whenever they could so it did not help Mitchell who feeds off Boston’s handoffs at the top of the key. On top of that Aari McDonald had a huge game with 27 points off 7/11 shooting. Five fouls on Mitchell also opens up things for the others so can’t count her out this game. With the Fever acquiring Chloe Bibby, it ate into Natasha Howards minutes but since in the last few games she’s seen heavy minutes. With Alyssa Thomas being her primary defender and sagging off, a great way to attack that matchup would be to add Bibby into more of a role to space the floor and pull Thomas out of the paint more often.
Mercury Breakdown
Alyssa Thomas had a fantastic game going for 32 points, 15 rebounds and 7 assists. Thomas matchup with Howard allows her to sag off (similar to what we been seeing all season with other opponents) but with Howard being a non shooter this allows to her to be much more aggressive crashing the glass. Since Bonner joined the team, she’s seen 10+ Rebounds in 7/10 games. Guards continue to be a problem for the Fever as they are allowing the 2nd most points to them and the 2nd most points in the paint to them. This puts Kahleah Copper in another great spot to succeed as she scored 22 points that includes 8 free three attempts. Sabally struggled mightily in this game going 3/14 from the field and even fouled out. Sophie Cunningham was constantly beating her to her spot and forced her to take some tough contested shots, the drop coverage coverage made her settle for some threes (some were stepbacks), but overall the straight line drives were very tough for her and expect more of the same tough shots.
What Props Am I Taking Today?
Aliyah Boston Over 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-114 Fanduel)
Natasha Howard Under 11.5 Points (-114 Fanduel)
Kahleah Copper Over 15.5 Points (-128 Fanduel)
Alyssa Thomas 10+ Rebounds (+112 Fanduel) 0.89Units
Azura Stevens 2+ Threes Made (-146 Fanduel)
Azura Stevens 3+ Threes Made (+220 Fanduel) 0.5Units
Kamilla Cardoso 10+ Rebounds & 10+ Points (-110 Draftkings)
Elizabeth Williams Over 18.5 Points + Rebounds (-102 Fanduel)