WNBA Props 8/16
Kayla McBride Over 14.5 Points (-120 Fanduel)
The Liberty struggle with spot up shooting and chasing players around off ball, both of which McBride does very well and has punished this defense doing this in both matchups so far, with Phee and without her.
As we can see here in the screenshot above, we see McBride catching and getting setup for a spot up three as she came from the opposite corner and Fiebich gets hit with a pindown screen and was already lagging behind.
On her next field goal attempt (above), she gets a handoff with a ton of space. Jonquel Jones is not going to play at the level much and this is simply just too much space for a shooter with a quick release. She gets looks like this throughout both games and its why she’s made 4+ threes in both.
Again, this is just too much space they are allowing her off screens with their drop coverage.
Courtney Williams Over 11.5 RA (-102 Fanduel)
She’s another player who has gone over this line in both games. Last game she had 12 RA but it could have been higher if not for her third quarter foul trouble which cut her minutes short. She’s played 28+ minutes in 5/6 games without Phee this season and the only game short of that mark was the latest Liberty game where she played 25 minutes. The Liberty leak rebounds and typically long rebounds as they love to shoot threes and that is perfect for guards like Williams. When she see’s 28+ minutes versus a bottom 7 rebounding team, she’s over this line in 8/13 games this season.
Jonquel Jones Under 13.5 Points (-105 Draftkings)
Jones has struggled in this matchup and it makes sense considering she likes to score from the perimeter, where almost 50% of her points come from this season. The Lynx are allowing the 5th fewest three-point attempts in the last 10 games. Defending the three ball has been apart of their identity for the past few seasons. She’s averaging 4 three-point attempts per game this season, yet has only taken three total attempts in two games versus the Lynx this season. One thing we see is the switching. Switching is never good for a pick & pop shooter. Here below we see Alanna switch back onto Jones but the help comes from the elbow. Collapsing the paint was a theme throughout last game.
In this screenshot (below) we see more nail help cutting off her driving lane off as she catches the pass off the roll.
In this screenshot, she is getting an entry pass at the top of the screen and seeing nail help yet again and they are trying to trap her here.
The shots she will see are going to be difficult and low percentage looks most the game. The Lynx are the best at defending her position this season, and when she faces a top 8 defense versus her position (excluding early exits to injuries), she’s gone under this line in 5/7 games and averaging 13 ppg.