WNBA Props 7/8
We just went 3-0 yesterday with player props and have an early game today and then an evening game to tackle with matchups between the Sky vs Mystics and Aces vs Liberty.
Ariel Atkins Over 3.5 Assists (-115 Draftkings)
Atkins in the three games without Kamilla Cardoso has had 20, 7 and 16 potential assists (according to Andrew Wade). Ever since Vandersloot went down with an ACL injury, she’s taken more of a point guard role recently. In the 10 games without her, she’s over this line in 6 of them and averaging 11.7 potential assists per game. The paint defense recently for the Mystics have not been good and the way they pressure the ball handlers, combined with the nail help, she can get a mix of paint assists and three-point assists here. With both Cardoso and Vandersloot off the court, she’s averaging 6.1 assists per 100 possessions. Some of the recent primary ball handler assists versus the Mystics have done well:
Courtney Williams (8 Ast)
JJ Quinerly with Paige OUT (4 Ast)
Chelsea Gray (8 Ast)
Courtney Williams with Collier OUT (4 Ast)
Paige Bueckers (7 Ast)
Brittney Sykes Over 16.5 Points (-114 Fanduel)
Recently Sykes has had to play some tough POA defenses and now she gets an easier rim defense and free throw matchup to attack versus the Sky where she dropped 32 points against back in mid June. In the Sky’s three games without Cardoso, they are allowing the 4th most FGA and FGM at the rim, plus the 4th most FTA allowed, which are all perfect for Sykes to thrive in. When she has faced a non top five rim defense this season, she’s gone over this line in 8/11 games while averaging 19.5 points. I think the lower than usual line is due to the recent tough matchups but not adjusted for this matchup. Courtney Williams (25 Pts) and Kesley Plum (22 Pts) have put up some solid numbers in the last two games and think this can be a great spot for Sykes to get downhill.
Jewell Loyd Under 10.5 Pts (-118 Fanduel)
Since the Liberty said they would do a better job of limiting threes (After the Mercury game), they have allowed the fewest three-point attempts and fewest three-pointers made. 55% of her field goal attempts are three-point attempts, which is not ideal for this adjustment from the Liberty.
“We were more intentional about getting out and running people off the three-point line today… we got killed in Phoenix obviously so that was a change that… was really important for us coming into this game… everyone on our bench our bench has been really good for us they’re going to continue to get better for us and it’s going to be really important for us down the stretch when we need all 11 and 12 to.”
- Cloud on Three-Point Defense and Bench Development after Dream Game
This quote was from the post game press quote articles I do, and since then, they’ve stuck to this ideology. With A’ja Wilson playing, she’s gone under this line in 10 of 15 games this season. On top of this, the Liberty continue to be a solid off screen defense in which they rank second best in the league. The real weakness of the defense is the paint where Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson can attack as they are allowing the 2nd most points in the paint in the last 10 games (the most in the last 5 games too).