WNBA Props 7/7
Have three player props I'm targeting today. We've managed to go 4-2 in our last 6 posted plays.
Brionna Jones Over 6.5 Rebounds (-135 BET365)
Jones is in a spot where the Valkyries are allowing the 2nd most offensive rebounds and 3rd most rebounds overall in the last five games. 40% of her rebounds are coming from offensive rebounds as well. Should be a solid game to see 25+ minutes (7-point spread) as she’s done in five straight games (averaging 32 mpg in the last five). When she is able to see 25+ minutes this season, she’s over this line in 11 of 15 games. Some recent players in the last five games and their rebounding efforts:
Jessica Shepard (10 Reb)
Nneka Ogwumike (7 Reb)
Angel Reese (18 Reb)
Breanna Stewart (10 Reb)
Olivia Nelson-Ododa (6 Reb)
Veronica Burton Over 13.5 Points + Assists (-106 Fanduel)
This is a great spot for her to try and score in the paint (non-ra) where a third of her points come from and 38% of her field goal attempts. The Dream are allowing the Dream are allowing the 3rd most field goal attempts and the 5th most field goals made in the paint (non-ra). She also continues to have double digit potential assists in every game but the first game of the season (according to Andrew Wade). In games facing a bottom 7 paint (non-ra) defense, she’s over this line in 7/8 games.
Paige Bueckers Under 10.5 Rebounds + Assists (-138 Fanduel)
No Siegrist, Ogunbowale, or Carrington tonight, but that means three guard lineups that have others be facilitators as James and Quinerly tend to bring the ball up more and have Bueckers work a little more off ball. This sets up her scoring more so and in a great matchup to do that as the Mercury tend to give up midrange looks. Without Siegrist I noticed she averages 9 RA per game but with Siegrist she averages 11.1 RA per game, which is being carried by a 16 RA game in the overtime loss to the Mystics because outside of that game she has not gone over 9 RA without her. In the last 10 games, the Mercury are allowing the 6th fewest assists and 3rd fewest rebounds per game. The Mercury still have the 3rd best rim defense (FGA and FGM) in the last 10 games and when she faces a top 7 rim defense, she’s under this line in 6/8 games.